Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 21.711056 23.599693 25.639735 28.017896 30.727817 33.736006 37.350756
2025-11-02 18.598591 21.147845 24.091390 27.783151 32.349892 37.896731 45.276769
2025-11-09 16.526486 19.452113 23.011078 27.748325 34.031840 42.302520 54.420696
2025-11-16 14.930235 18.055166 22.017597 27.556086 35.352462 46.375158 64.057526
2025-11-23 13.685201 16.917699 21.159032 27.337616 36.498385 50.318049 74.490087
2025-11-30 12.680922 15.967300 20.405729 27.106759 37.511113 54.172069 85.852496
2025-12-07 11.899158 15.228185 19.841443 27.036399 38.698047 58.476218 99.390877
2025-12-14 11.194062 14.524748 19.243196 26.813577 39.562810 62.357524 113.498458
2025-12-21 10.890770 14.357303 19.395502 27.753939 42.497790 70.656146 140.956107
2025-12-28 10.338392 13.780278 18.873138 27.525968 43.312575 74.994239 161.081989
2026-01-04 9.893916 13.328523 18.499585 27.493106 44.463822 80.301018 186.999742
2026-01-11 9.567518 13.029416 18.335478 27.791592 46.286261 87.579988 224.223290
2026-01-18 9.154123 12.578980 17.906969 27.599620 47.149966 93.006468 260.520646
2026-01-25 8.761676 12.138364 17.463267 27.336131 47.833994 98.251399 301.933437
2026-02-01 8.442381 11.793758 17.152847 27.286680 48.976703 105.139042 359.837445
2026-02-08 8.123999 11.432022 16.787016 27.092033 49.763669 111.335623 424.396899
2026-02-15 7.827461 11.089083 16.429286 26.875671 50.466634 117.582526 501.876161
2026-02-22 7.551929 10.765827 16.083966 26.648975 51.110333 123.940546 596.152974
2026-03-01 7.321038 10.504067 15.829166 26.579666 52.135861 132.075818 731.427070
2026-03-08 7.083878 10.220252 15.517213 26.361947 52.749821 139.066228 885.267193
2026-03-15 7.025168 10.231533 15.735076 27.279231 56.543861 160.386608 1361.863612
2026-03-22 6.812116 9.970521 15.438300 27.056788 57.172503 169.036981 1728.817545
2026-03-29 6.637302 9.767189 15.236436 27.024701 58.347762 180.951651 2352.937702